Excavator Sales End Slump, Industry Turning Point Nears
The latest data on excavator sales in 2024 is out. It is exciting that my country's excavator sales have finally ended the downward trend for two consecutive years, especially at the end of the year, with a good situation of surging sales. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in December alone, sales of various types of excavators reached 19,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,312 units, an increase of 22.1% over the same period last year; while exports were about 10,000 units, an increase of 10.8%. It can be said that the increase in sales data this time is not only a rebound from the past recession, but also shows the hope of a recovery in the industry.
The total sales volume for the whole year of 2024 was 201,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%. This is a turning point worth seizing, especially the 11.7% year-on-year increase in domestic sales, which just provides more powerful evidence for the recovery of the industry. The shadow of 2024 is not only reflected in the growth of numbers, but more importantly, the recovery of excavator sales will also promote the development of infrastructure construction and fixed asset investment, which is an important indicator for observing economic changes.
Compared with 2022, the sales volume of excavators in that year was 261,300 units, which has dropped by 23.8%; while in 2023, it dropped to about 195,000 units, a decrease of about 25%. Judging from such a decline, the impact of the past two years on the industry cannot be underestimated. However, the warming trend in 2024 is not unexpected. It reflects the country's continued efforts in the field of infrastructure and the gradual recovery of market demand.
Statistics show that in December this year, the average monthly working hours of major engineering machinery products reached 93.9 hours, but it was 2.91% lower than before. Among them, the average working hours of excavators were 91.5 hours, and the overall operation rate was 68.3%. This data shows to some extent that although the industry is still in the adjustment stage, signs of improvement have become increasingly obvious.
For the emerging excavator market, the excellent performance of listed companies provides strong support. Industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery and Zoomlion are constantly improving their net profits. For example, Sany Heavy Industry's net profit in the first three quarters reached 4.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.66%. The net profits of XCMG and Zoomlion also increased by 9.71% and 9.95% year-on-year respectively. Such an increase in profitability is certainly a direct response to the market recovery, and it also indicates that the construction machinery industry will usher in new growth points in the future.
Although China's excavator exports are slightly weak in the global market, with a decline of about 4.24%, the gross profit margin of overseas products is higher than that of the domestic market, which makes many companies pay more attention to the layout of the international market. In the future, as the proportion of overseas revenue gradually increases, the international market will play an increasingly significant role in leading the development of the industry.
In terms of the capital market, the construction machinery index in 2024 ushered in two small peaks in spring and autumn and winter. Although there has been a certain decline recently, the increase is still more than 20% compared with the data at the end of 2023. With this trend, the overall market will gradually accumulate momentum for recovery from all aspects.
Based on the forecast of Caitong Securities, domestic market demand will usher in marginal improvement, especially driven by the infrastructure and real estate industries. With the gradual implementation of environmental protection and other policies, the proportion of electrified construction machinery will also increase, further promoting the green transformation of the industry. At the same time, with the recovery of demand for equipment such as small excavators, it is expected that 2025 will usher in a new peak in demand for updates.
In general, the excavator market, which has been in a long downturn, is moving towards a new turnaround. For the construction machinery industry, this is not only a steadily improving trend, but also a reflection of the survival and development of enterprises in turmoil. With the gradual recovery of market confidence, the growth in excavator sales will further help infrastructure construction and provide stronger support for the high-quality development of the national economy.
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