2024 Q3 Construction Machinery Industry Performance Review
Earthmoving machinery resumes rapid growth, industry inflection point is approaching
In the first three quarters, the performance of the engineering machinery sector grew steadily, the profitability of key companies gradually improved, and the operating quality was solidand stable. In the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue of the engineering machinery sector was 268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 23.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%; the overall gross profit margin was 25.80%, a year-on-year increase of 0.49pct; the net profit margin was 9.17%, a year-on-year increase of 0.85pct; the net cash flow from operating activities was 23.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.91%. The revenue of Sany Heavy Industry/Liugong in the first three quarters increased by 3.92%/8.25% year-on-year respectively; the revenue of XCMG/Zoomlion in the first three quarters decreased by 4.11%/3.18% year-on-year respectively. Sany Heavy Industry and Liugong's earthmoving machinery accounted for a high proportion, and their revenue in the first three quarters achieved rapid growth; affectedby the decline in lifting machinery and concrete machinery, the revenue of XCMG and Zoomlion declined. In the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to the parent companies of Sany Heavy Industry/XCMG/Zoomlion/Liugong increased by 19.66%/9.71%/9.95%/59.82% year-on-year respectively. The proportion of overseas revenue of major OEMs continued to increase, cost reduction and efficiency improvement continued to advance, and the overall profitability continued to improve.
The turning point of the industry is gradually approaching, and the demand for construction machinery has ushered in marginal improvement. ① New demand is expected to stabilize: the growth rate of infrastructure fixed asset investment in the first three quarters reached 9.3%, rural and water conservancy projects continued to exert their strength, and the counter-cyclical regulatory role of infrastructure investment continued to highlight, and the driving effect on the construction machinery industry is expected to gradually emerge. ② Update demand is expected to start gradually: a new round of update peak period of the construction machinery industry will appear in 2025. ③ Overseas exports maintain steady growth: my country strengthens exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" and gradually improves its layout in developed countries in Europe and the United States, and the competitiveness of domestic brands in the global market continues to increase. ④ The effect of machine replacement is gradually emerging: the application field of construction machinery products is constantly expanding, and the trend of machine replacement is becoming more and more obvious.
Investment advice: The turning point of the construction machinery industry is gradually approaching, and operating performance is constantly improving. Recommended attention: ① Leading OEMs: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong; ② Core component leader: Hengli Hydraulics; ③ Aerial work platform leader: Zhejiang Dingli; ④ Bulldozer leader: Shantui; ⑤ Forklift leader: Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, etcRisk warning: Infrastructure and real estate investment is lower than expected; cyclical fluctuations in the industry; vicious market competition; deterioration of the overseas traenvironment, etc.
